🔗 Share this article

The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had finally been halted in a international match.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, yes, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, their power, their chicanery, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that some may have held for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches going back three years, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, successful opponents have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only occasionally against New Zealand.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.